2018 Seniors Housing and Care Survey

In December of 2017, Lancaster Pollard sent an online survey to approximately 4,000 leaders at seniors housing and care facilities throughout the U.S. Over the course of two weeks, 386 respondents completed the online survey. The survey has a 95% confidence level and a confidence interval of 4.7, meaning that the differences in responses of 5 percentage points or more are statistically significant.

Overall, our survey depicts a competitive market, with 87% of respondents indicating their local environment is competitive or extremely competitive. Eighty-two percent of respondents cited a shortage of workers as a key concern over the next 12 months. Additional notable findings are discussed below.

Expectations for 2018

Which elements of the continuum of care do you think will experience the most growth in the next 12 months?

Alzheimer’s/memory care was predicted to have more growth than all other categories in the next 12 months. In 2017, affordable seniors housing was predicted to have the most growth at 52%. Last year when we asked this question, 14% of respondents chose home health services, compared to this year’s 37%.

For which elements of the continuum of care do you have construction projects planned in the next 12 months?

Respondents cited assisted living (AL) and Alzheimer’s/MC most often as the type of construction projects they have planned. However, only 37% of respondents indicated AL, compared to last year’s 44%.

What influence do you gauge the presidential administration has had on your business over the past year?

Thirty-four percent of respondents indicated the presidential administration has had no influence on their business. This is up from last year’s 17%. Twenty-two percent indicated that they anticipate a negative influence on their business, up from last year’s 12%.

Respondent’s Likelihood for 2018 Projects

Likelihood you will pursue a new construction project in the next 12 months.

Overall, there is less of a probability of respondents pursuing a new construction project in 2018 than there was last year. In 2017, 53% were extremely likely and 22% were somewhat likely, a total of 75%. In 2018, 62% are extremely likely or somewhat likely to pursue new construction.

Likelihood you will attempt to sell a facility in the next 12 months. 

Twenty-five percent of respondents indicated that they are extremely likely or somewhat likely to attempt to sell a facility. This is not statistically different than the 2017 results.

Outlook for 2018

New to our survey, we asked respondents for their predictions on overall outlook and competition.

What is your outlook for the next three years concerning the economic viability of local stand-alone skilled nursing facilities?

Thirty-four percent of respondents indicated a poor outlook concerning the economic viability of local stand-alone skilled nursing facilities. Close behind, 33% of respondents indicated a fair outlook.

What is your outlook for the next three years concerning the economic viability of local stand-alone AL facilities?

Respondents predicted a more positive outlook for stand-alone AL facilities, with a majority of respondents indicating a good outlook. Thirty-three percent predicted a fair outlook.

How would you describe your local competitive environment?

Eighty-seven percent of respondents indicated a competitive or extremely competitive environment. Only one percent of respondents indicated a not very competitive environment.

What are your key concerns over the next 12 months?

Eighty-two percent of respondents indicated a shortage of workers is a key concern over the next 12 months. Slightly more than half indicated occupancy levels as another key concern.

The full report can be downloaded by clicking here.

 

About The Authors

Steven W. Kennedy Jr.
Senior Managing Director
65 East State Street
16th Floor
Columbus, OH 43215
(614) 224-8800

Steven W. Kennedy Jr.

Senior Managing Director

Steven W. Kennedy Jr. is Senior Managing Director and a member of the Executive Committee, Strategy Committee and Operations Committee at Lancaster Pollard.

Steve is regional manager for the central United States, overseeing banking production of the firm’s Columbus headquarters, as well as its regional offices in Chicago, Austin, Kansas City and Minneapolis. He also manages the firm’s relationships with Washington DC as the company’s senior governmental liaison. Since joining Lancaster Pollard in 2001, he has closed a variety of financing structures totaling over $2.5 billion. Steve has been named the firm’s Top Health Care Banker multiple times and structured and underwrote the firm’s “Deal of the Year” in 2010, 2013 and 2016.

Steve earned his MBA from the Fisher College of Business at The Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio. He received a bachelor’s degree (magna cum laude) in economics and political science as well as a certificate in organizational studies from Denison University.

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